The Republican Party Essay Example For Students

The Republican Party Essay IntroductionThe Republican Party, since its first convention in Michigan in 1854, has had a philosophy that has remainedrelatively unchanged. Its oath entices Americans to believe that good government is based on the individual andthat each persons ability, dignity, freedom and responsibility must be honored and recognized How do theRepublican philosophies hold up to the ideas of some of the political thinkers that we have discussed in class. In theselection to follow, I will examine the Republicans main philosophies and will describe how Rousseau would agreeor disagree with their position. I will be using the Republican Platform of 1996 to aid in my discussion. Ideas thatwill be of focus will be the role of the government, property rights, and freedom of the individual. We will write a custom essay on The Republican Party specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now The Role of the GovernmentWe are the party of small, responsible and efficient government? We therefore assert the power of the Americanpeople over government, rather than the other way around. The view of the Republicans across the Nation is that the role of government should be kept to a minimum. In thissection, I will discuss certain views of the Party and how they would be accepted or rejected by Jean-JacquesRousseau. The Republican notion has been that less government is better. Rousseaus notion was that of extrication. He states that the fundamental political problem is to find a form of association that defends and protects the personand the goods of each associate with all the common force, and by means of which each one uniting with all,nevertheless obeys only himself and remains as free as before (Cahn, 367). The Republicans would agree withRousseaus idea. They (Republican Party) state that the Tenth Amendment to the United States Constitution shouldbe the basis for the role of government. The Tenth Amendment states:The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved tothe States respectively, or to its people. Republicans, while holding the majority in both the House and Senate have taken it upon themselves to apply alllaws to Congress, so that those who make the rules have to live by them. Rousseau agrees in respect that noassociation should be above the laws it makes. In his treatise entitled Of the Social contract or Principles of PoliticalRight, Rousseau states, Indeed, each individual may, as a man, have a particular will contrary to, or divergent from,the general will which he may have as a citizen (Cahn, 426). What Rousseau is suggesting is that a person may feelone way, but he/she must act in accordance with the general will of his/her fellow citizens. The Republicans wouldinsist that the proper role of the Government is to provide only what can be considered critical functions that cant bepreformed by individuals or private organizations; and that the best government is that which governs least. Theyplan to streamline the government and make it more effective by !competition and p rivatization. Rousseau agrees by saying that simple government is best, because it is simple. Democracy. On the subject of Democracy, Rousseau would point out that there has never been, nor will there everbe a true Democracy. He says, It is contrary to the natural order that the greater number should govern and thelesser number should be governed (Cahn, 448). Republicans would tend to lean towards the fact that people in theUnited States need to have more say in how the government is ran. Signs of a Good Government. Rousseau says that there is no way to find out the best Government, because there areas many solutions as there are combinations. He does give people an idea on how to determine if when aGovernment is working. All other things being equal, the Government under which, without naturalizations,without colonies, the Citizens become populous and multiply most is infallibly the best (Cahn, 456). .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a , .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a .postImageUrl , .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a , .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a:hover , .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a:visited , .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a:active { border:0!important; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a:active , .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .uedf3b0fbb973ff57dade251f4521674a:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Child abuse EssayPropertyThe subject of property and the rights to it have instigated many heated debates over time. Rousseaus argument isfor that of first occupant. The right of the first occupant, altough more real than that of strongest, becomes a trueright only after the establishment of property (Cahn, 428). Rousseau goes on to explain that the right ofthe individual over his/her property is subordinate to the right which the community has over it. The Republicansoppose the view of Rousseau. They consider private property rights to be the cornerstone in America. They plan tosafeguard those rights by the Fifth Amendment. This Amendment states that no man shall be depr ived of propertywithout compensation. Rousseau agrees with the Republican Party claim by saying that, Every man has by nature aright to all that is necessary to him (Cahn, 428). He agrees that the seizure of land without compensation is in itself,not in the best interest of the government. In conclusion, the r!ight of property to Rousseau was not as important as it is to the Republican Party. Freedom of the IndividualMany people believe they have their freedom, but most do not know how much they have lost. In this section, I willdiscuss the view of the freedom of individuals. Slavery. Rousseau states from the beginning that every man born into slavery is born for slavery. He continues bysaying, force made the first slaves? (Cahn, 421). What Rousseau is arguing is man has no right to bind his fellowman. He says that a man giving up his freedom, to him was an absurd idea. He also states that a person is not in theirright mind for doing so. To renounce ones liberty is to renounce ones quality as a man (Cahn, 423) Rousseaucloses his argument on slavery by stating the following:Thus, in whatever way we view things, the right of slavery is null, not only because it is illegitimate, but because it is absurd and meaningless. These words, slavery and right, are contradictory; they are mutually exclusive. Whether addressed by a man to a man, or by a man to a people, such a speech as this will be equally foolish: I makea convention with you wholly at your expense and wholly for my profit, which I shall observe as long as I pleaseand which you also shall observe as long as you please (Cahn, 424). The philosophy of the Republican Party has been to renounce the act of slavery. They have fought for the freedomof individuals through the Civil War and as well as with the Civil Rights Era of the 1960s. They believe that anindividuals right to equality was important. This is one area where Republicans have remained solid. General Will. The final aspect of freedom is the will of the people. Rousseau believes that the general will of thepeople make the social contract possible. According to him, it is possible not to just act in self-interest, but for theinterest of people of the state. Rousseau goes on to state that you gain civil liberty in a social contract. He agreeswith the philosopher Spinoza in that we are slaves to our passions. With respect to the Republican Party, theybelieve, like Rousseau that the will of the majority should take precedence. In regards to justice, the RepublicanParty states the following:The delicate balance of power between the respective branches of our national government and the governments ofthe 50 states has been eroded. The notion of judicial review has in some cases come to resemble judicial supremacy,affecting all segments of the public and private endeavor. .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 , .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 .postImageUrl , .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 , .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860:hover , .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860:visited , .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860:active { border:0!important; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860:active , .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860 .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .ua1dd9b0c27a7fee3ceeb23a8d103b860:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Harriet Tubman EssayConclusionIn closing, Rousseau envisioned several different forms of government. They were based on certain principles thatwould make each one run effectively. The criteria of size and population mattered just as importantly as anythingelse that has been discussed. He would probably think that the United States was not best ran in a democraticstructure due to its size and the diversity of its population. The Republican Party, contrary to Rousseaus claim,believes that the form of government is not the problem, but how that government has been ran ineffectively. Theycontinue by stating that their philosophy has been to let government, by which its people are free, run withoutintervention of its representatives. Those people, who represent, should follow the laws that are made for theprotection of citizens. Works CitedCahn, Steven M. Classics of Modern Political Theory. Oxford University Press. New York. 1997

Luis Alvarez - A Profile of the Famous Scientist

Luis Alvarez - A Profile of the Famous Scientist Name: Luis Alvarez Born/Died: 1911-1988 Nationality: American (with antecedents in Spain and Cuba) About Luis Alvarez Luis Alvarez is a good example of how an amateur can have a profound impact on the world of paleontology. We put the word amateur is in quotation marks because, before he turned his attention to the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, Alvarez was a highly accomplished physicist (in fact, he won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1968 for his discovery of the resonance states of fundamental particles). He was also a lifelong inventor, and was responsible for (among other things) the Synchrotron, one of the first particle accelerators used to probe the ultimate constituents of matter. Alvarez was also involved in the later stages of the Manhattan Project, which yielded the nuclear bombs dropped on Japan at the end of World War II. In paleontology circles, though, Alvarez is best known for his late 1970s investigation (conducted with his geologist son, Walter) into the K/T Extinction, the then-mysterious event 65 million years ago that killed the dinosaurs, as well as their pterosaur and marine reptile cousins.  Alvarezs working  theory, inspired by his discovery  of a clay boundary in Italy separating geologic strata from the Mesozoic and Cenozoic Eras, was that the impact of a large comet or meteor threw up billions of tons of dust, which circled around the globe, blotted out the sun, and caused global temperatures to plunge and  the earth’s vegetation to wither, with the result that first plant-eating and then meat-eating dinosaurs starved and froze to death. Alvarezs theory, published in 1980,  was treated with intense skepticism for a full decade, but was finally accepted by the majority of scientists after scattered iridium deposits in the vicinity of the Chicxulub meteor crater (in present-day Mexico) could be traced to the impact of a large interstellar object. (The  rare element iridium is more common deeper in the earth than on the surface, and could only have been scattered in the patterns detected  by a tremendous astronomical impact.)   Still, the widespread acceptance of this theory  hasnt prevented scientists from pointing to ancillary causes for the extinction of the dinosaurs, the most likely candidate being the volcanic eruptions triggered when the Indian subcontinent slammed into the underside of Asia at the end of the Cretaceous period.

Ionic vs Covalent Bonds - Understand the Difference

Ionic vs Covalent Bonds - Understand the Difference A molecule or compound is made when two or more atoms form a  chemical bond, linking them together. The two types of bonds are ionic bonds and covalent bonds. The distinction between them has to do with how equally the atoms participating in the bond share their electrons. Ionic Bonds In an ionic bond, one atom essentially donates an electron to stabilize the other atom. In other words, the electron spends most of its time close to the bonded atom.  Atoms that participate in an ionic bond have different electronegativity values from each other. A polar bond is formed by the attraction between oppositely-charged ions.  For example, sodium and chloride form an ionic bond, to make NaCl, or table salt. You can predict an ionic bond will form when two atoms have different electronegativity values and detect an ionic compound by its properties, including a tendency to dissociate into ions in water. Covalent Bonds In a covalent bond, the atoms are bound by shared electrons. In a true covalent bond, the electronegativity values are the same (e.g., H2, O3), although in practice the electronegativity values just need to be close. If the electron is shared equally between the atoms forming a covalent bond, then the bond is said to be nonpolar. Usually, an electron is more attracted to one atom than to another, forming a polar covalent bond. For example, the atoms in water, H2O, are held together by polar covalent bonds. You can predict a covalent bond will form between two nonmetallic atoms. Also, covalent compounds may dissolve in water, but dont dissociate into ions. Ionic vs Covalent Bonds Summary Heres a quick summary of the differences between ionic and covalent bonds, their properties, and how to recognize them: Ionic Bonds Covalent Bonds Description Bond between metal and nonmetal. The nonmetal attracts the electron, so it's like the metal donates its electron to it. Bond between two nonmetals with similar electronegativities. Atoms share electrons in their outer orbitals. Polarity High Low Shape No definite shape Definite shape Melting Point High Low Boiling Point High Low State at Room Temperature Solid Liquid or Gas Examples Sodium chloride (NaCl), Sulfuric Acid (H2SO4 ) Methane (CH4), Hydrochloric acid (HCl) Chemical Species Metal and nometal (remember hydrogen can act either way) Two nonmetals Do you understand? Test your comprehension with this quiz. Key Points The two main types of chemical bonds are ionic and covalent bonds.An ionic bond essentially donates an electron to the other atom participating in the bond, while electrons in a covalent bond are shared equally between the atoms.The only pure covalent bonds occur between identical atoms. Usually, there is some polarity (polar covalent bond) in which the electrons are shared, but spend more time with one atom than the other.Ionic bonds form between a metal and a nonmetal. Covalent bonds form between two nonmetals.

Paper on Financial Monitoring and Control Essay

Paper on Financial Monitoring and Control - Essay Example According to Nikolai et al (2009), efficient monitoring and control of cash ensure that there is adequate cash to undertake important activities in organizations. Cash control systems need internal control measures that are adequate and effective, which must comply with laws and regulations of any given jurisdiction where the business or project is carried out. Kutz (2003) asserts that error and lack of control over organizations assets and cash lead to business or project failure. Components of financial monitoring and control system First, roles and responsibilities form part of the components of financial monitoring and control system. Every financial or accounting officer has a role to play regarding cash receipts and disbursement as well as towards financial records. Access to cash of the organization should be limited to few authorized personnel and duties performed by different accounting and finance officers should be separated. Cash should be controlled from the time it is r eceived from customers (at the point of sale) to the point it is deposited in the bank. Point of sales terminals or cash registers need to be used. This is because point of sales terminals and cash registers allow for monitoring cash inflow. Second, financial records are components of monitoring and controlling finances. All expenses and revenue (income) transactions are recorded in general ledger. General ledgers form the foundation for generating reports and financial statements of each project. Revenue, cost and managerial accounting are used for internal purposes for planning, monitoring and controlling organization’s monies. Financial records are evidences that financial transactions took place. Financial records assist project managers to determine how much they have spent, how much they have and how much they need to spent in future (Garman and Forgue, 2007). Gross et al (2005) asserts that well kept financial records enables managers and interested parties to review r esult of financial transactions. Cash shortages and excess will be easily identified and remedial measures taken to correct the situation when proper records are kept. List of all checks received must be recorded and forwarded to the appropriate department. Cashiers must prepare daily bank deposits. Records of all billings, payables, accruals, receivables, invoices, contracts and suppliers must be kept appropriately. Third, disbursements thresholds also form part of financial monitoring and control system. Procedures that allow payments of actual expenditures must be complied with accordingly. The organization must create ceilings above which payments shall only be made through checks. For example, an organization ensures that payments above $200 must be made using checks. Furthermore, large amounts of cash to be disbursed must be authorized and approved by people who are in higher positions. For example, any expenditure above $5,000 must only be approved and authorized by the proje ct director or managing director. The organization should properly utilize petty cash systems and payments should only be made upon verification of all supporting documents. Fourth, a budget forms a component of financial monitoring and control system. Budgets reflect financial goals and objectives of a project covering a specific period of time. During budgeting, technological trends, resource pricing, employee relations, raw materials cycles, inventory levels, financial needs and seasonality should be taken into considerations (Shim and Siegel 2008). Donovan (2005) explained that before a person or organization spend what they have earned, it is important to prepare budgets to be able to focus on priorities. Therefore, every

Newborn Stages of Development Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Newborn Stages of Development - Essay Example This essay focuses mostly on the experience of raising a newborn baby and it being one of the most harrowing yet rewarding experiences of human life. This essay aims to look at and discuss the initial stages of development for a newborn child. The researcher provides important information on the topic, shedding light on baby's physiology and psychological condition and inform parents and caregivers about the importance of bonding with the baby in a positive way. In conclusion, the researcher states that it is important to realize that the age old adage about a newborn being like clay that can be molded into any sculpture is perhaps very true. A parents and caretakers have the utmost responsibility to encourage development of every facet of the newborn’s personality. Parents that are always absent from the baby’s life due to career-responsibilities perhaps inadvertently are hindering their infant’s personality development. Caretakers who also inhibit their infantà ¢â‚¬â„¢s movements due to safety concerns need to realize that such a move restricts the baby’s physical development; a baby needs to be allowed freedom of movement as long as there is no real danger involved. The researcher also suggests that perhaps the greatest thing to realize is that every baby is different. Fretting over a baby who takes a longer time to learn a task than its counterparts is usually detrimental to both the parents and caretakers and the baby and every infant should be allowed to grow up at its own pace.

The Merger Of Bp And Amoco

The Merger Of Bp And Amoco British Petroleum and Amoco announced their merger on August 11th of 1998 as the largest industrial merger in history worldwide. Initially the plan was to convert all the BP service stations in the United States into Amoco, whereas overseas all the Amoco service stations were supposed to be converted into BPs. However, in 2001 BP announced that all Amoco service stations would be renamed into BP while some others would be closed or disposed of, leading to an entire rebranding of Amoco Fuels. During 2008, almost all Amoco Fuels service stations had been restored by BP Gasoline with Invigorate and just a few of them remained operations under the original Amoco brands name. On April 2010, Chevron purchased some of the remaining Amoco Fuel service stations, mostly in Mississippi and converted them into Texaco service stations. After the spill in the Gulf of Mexico from Deepwater Horizon, BP considered to rebrand their US based operations back into Amoco Fuels as the company suffered a decline in sales on account of the negative publicity associated with the incident. Companys background: In 1909, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) was incorporated as a subsidiary of Burmah Oil Company to exploit a concession to search for oil in Iran. By 1935, it became the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), but after the assassination of the pro-western Prime Minister Ali Razmara, the oil industry in Iran was nationalized and National Iranian Oil Company was formed displacing the AIOC. By the time, the British government owned the AIOC and contested the nationalization at the International Court of Justice at The Hague, but its complaint was dismissed. However, in 1953, National Iranian Oil Company became an international consortium, and AIOC resumed operations in Iran as a member of it. The AIOC became the British Petroleum Company in 1954 and the British government was controlling it again. In 1959 the company expanded beyond the Middle East to Alaska and by 1978 it acquired a controlling interest in Standard Oil of Ohio. Nevertheless, British Petroleum Company continued operating from Iran until the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when the new regime confiscated all of the companys assets within the country without compensation, bringing the end of the British 70 years presence in Iran. Between 1979 and 1987, the British governments entire holding on the company was sold to several private investors and in 1987, British Petroleum negotiated the acquisition of Britoil. Moreover, Standard Oil of California and Gulf Oil had merged in 1984, it what would be known as the largest merger in history at that time; however the antitrust regulation relented many of its operating subsidiaries in the Gulf and sold some stations and a refinery in the eastern United States, allowing British Petroleum to acquire most of them. Finally, John Browne, who had been on the board as managing director since 1991, was appointed group chief executive in 1995. Browne is considered the responsible for BPs three major acquisitions; Amoco, ARCO and Burmah Castrol. Development of the merger: In 1997 BP and Amoco net income was US$ 4.6 billion and US$ 2.7 billion respectively. Combined revenues were US$ 108 billion and capital employed US$ 57 billion. The combined market capitalization was calculated around US$ 110 billion, a figure which would place the newly formed corporation among the top three oil companies in the world. The deal was expected to deliver synergies from cost savings that would add at least US$ 2 billion pre-tax a year by the end of 2000 to the earnings already separately targeted by the 2 companies. Finally, when British Petroleum merged with Amoco in December 1998 the company also acquired Burmah Castrol plc. and Arco (Atlantic Richfield Co.) closing the deal in early 2000. BP continued selling Amoco branded petrol even in service stations with the BP identity since Amoco had been rated as the best petroleum brand by consumers for 16 consecutive years comparable only to Chevron and Shell. In 2008, the high grade available petrol from BP (BP Gasoline with Invigorate) was still called Amoco Ultimate and BP decided to move it as most of its petrochemical businesses into a separate entity called Innovene within the BP Group. Terms agreed for the merger: The pre-merger negotiations conducted between the two companies were relatively fast compared to other transactions in the same scale. The benefits expected both companies were easily identified and agreements were developed in a friendly manner. The terms were disclosed immediately and were summarized as following: Value of the merger: US$ 53 billion Merger deal instrument: share swap (exchange of stock) Exchange Ratio agreed: Amoco shareholders were offered 3.97 BP shares for each share of Amoco common stock Amoco shareholders premium above BPs current market value: 25% Increase in number of shares after the merger: 15% Shareholders structure after merger: 60% BP shareholders 40% Amoco shareholders Headquarters of the new company after merger: BP Amoco plc. headquarters remained in London and Amocos head office became the headquarters for the companys North American operations Trading market for the companies: BP and Amoco shares would remain listed on the London Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange Companys management structure after merger: BPs CEO Sir John Brown would continue leading the company co-chaired by BPs chairman Peter Sutherland and Amocos chairman Larry Fuller Staff cuts after merger: BP Amoco plc. confirmed cost reductions from a cut-off in personnel; the two groups had 99,450 employees together, with BP employing 56,450 and Amoco the rest. The reduction in first stage would represent 11% to 13% of the total Combined reserves: 14.8 billion barrels. Serving 17,900 BP service stations around the world and 9,300 Amoco service stations all in the US Options pegged to the merger: Amoco granted BP an option to purchase 189,783,270 shares of Amoco common stock at a price of US$ 41 per share. This represented approximately 19.9 % of the outstanding Amocos common stock Dividend payout after the merger: Both companies would continue to pay quarterly dividends in the ordinary course prior to the implementation of the merger, then its dividend policy was to continue paying 4 dividends a year and with a payout of approximately 50 % of through cycle earnings The Merger Agreement would also provide termination fees to be paid by one party to the other under certain circumstances. The circumstances in which either party is able to terminate the Merger Agreement include: If either Amoco or BP shareholders do not approve the merger and related transactions If the other party enters into negotiations with any other person in relation to an acquisition offer for that party If the board of the other party withdraws or adversely modifies its approval related to the merger Market conditions leading to the merger: In order to get a better understanding about why the BP-Amoco merger is considered as one of the most successful mergers in history and which factors contributed to given success, it is important to deem about the different aspects from the oil industry market that either the management and the shareholders from both companies took into account to be convinced that the transaction would only add value and the risks would be covered: Oil prices worldwide were depressed and had fallen to their lowest levels in over a decade The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil had decreased to US$11.8 in real terms; the lowest price in 25 years No oil company of any significant size was immune to a takeover threat during the early 1990s; their stock prices were depressed. It was cheaper to buy oil reserves on Wall Street than by exploration and development outlays. These pressures caused the major oil companies to engage in a wide range of restructuring activities and costs reductions Restructuring efforts and improvements in technologies had lowered costs to US$16 to US$18 per barrel. Oil prices declined to US$9 per barrel in late 1998. Thus, the overriding objective for the mergers beginning in 1998 was to further increase efficiencies to lower breakeven levels toward the US$11 to US$12 per barrel range Amoco had reported the month before a fall of more than 50% in second quarter earnings Amoco, being the fourth largest US oil producer, was hurt by its lack of international refining Combining the chemicals operations of BP and Amoco would create a business with revenues of US$ 13 billion that together with the strengths of BP in Europe and Amoco in the US would provide a powerful platform for expansion in Asia where both companies already had significant investments The new chemicals business would be one of the worlds largest petrochemicals companies, with leading positions in 7 core products: acetic acid, acrylonitrile, aromatics, purified terephthalic acid (PTA), alpha-olefins, purified isophthalic acid (PIA) and polypropylene. A diversified portfolio of key proprietary technologies Best practices in acquisitions issues indicated that the successful mergers carried out in previous years tended to be those in which the goods or services offered by the companies involved in the transaction were highly similar, contrasting mergers between companies seeking to combine different markets and diversify its business. The latter were considerably more risky and the probability of failure was higher Features of BP-Amoco merger versus Daimler-Chrysler merger: In contrasting the BP and Amoco merger to Daimler and Chrysler, it is important to outline the main differences both in the pre-merger requisite as well as the merger implementation. Particularly, with regard to each companys ability to adapt to the changes after the merger and the manner in which the target markets would accept the new company. The acquisition of Chrysler marked the first time one of the Detroit Big Three automakers would be in the hands of a private equity firm. There are those who say the merger, which faced significant cultural differences, was doomed from the start. Originally, the plan was for Chrysler to use Daimler parts, components and even vehicle architecture to sharply reduce the cost to produce future vehicles. But problems surfaced when Daimlers Mercedes-Benz luxury division, whose components Chrysler would use, was averse to contribute to Chrysler. Further, the immediate perception of the market was that the new company would produce vehicles with lower quality standards Both automakers wanted to enter markets overseas that they had never explored before, and that consumers would be unwilling to accept such change. In the contrary to the car industry, the oil industry had been, arguably more than any other industry, forced to adjust to the massive change forces of globalization and entrepreneurial innovations. It stands out from most other industries in many ways, one being the existence of a truly global market in which 53% of the total volume is traded internationally. Oil itself accounts for about 10% of total world trade, more than any other commodity. Furthermore, there are some other key factors that contributed specifically to BP-Amoco merger success compared to Daimler-Chrysler such as: Amoco and BP believed that the bigger companies among the industry would win the best opportunities Amoco and BPs merger was cataloged by the oil industrys experts as one superb alliance of equals with complementary strategic and geographical strengths which effectively creates a new super-major that can better serve millions of customers worldwide It was known that within the oil industry, the best investment opportunities would go increasingly to companies that had the size and financial strength to take on those large-scale projects that offer a truly distinctive return There were accounting reasons in both companies why the merger would be more appropriate and would create value Amoco had a lack of international refining. Nonetheless, it also had important findings from research and development technologies to offer (a deal with an oil major was only a matter of time) Both, BP and Amoco had significant investments in solar energy and share strong records and reputations for sound operating practices, environmental and social responsibility. It was easy to predict that they were able to share the same practices and therefore the same markets Quite the opposite, Daimler-Chrysler never considered that their businesses were focused on different markets in terms of geographies, type of vehicles and prices. In addition to that, with regard to Chrysler, markets for passenger cars and commercial vehicles were deteriorated at the time of the merger (low growth expectations) In addition, the adaptation of automotive companies after the merger would be much slower than that of oil companies given the production practices of each of the parties. In other words, the extraction of oil was very similar whereas car production had significant differences Conclusions: According to Berkovitch and Narayanan2) there are three major types of motivations for mergers: synergy, hubris, and agency problems. BP-Amoco merger met the three of them: Synergy: efficiency objectives were promised and achieved; costs were reduced by adoptions of best practices from both companies, particularly in combining advanced technologies. The market cap of the company after the merger resulted 12.5% higher than the sum of both companies market cap. Hubris: this motivation may be reflected in overpaying for the target; in this case, Amocos shareholders premium outcome was around 25%, higher than any other merger premium negotiated within the industry. Agency problems: Since the Return on Equity (ROE) and the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased after the merger, it can be assume that the management and shareholders targets were well aligned and therefore agency problems were not implied. Moreover, divergent from Daimler-Chrysler merger; the reasons, the structure, and the implementation of the BP-Amoco transaction reflected the characteristics provided by the oil and gas industry to ensure the success of the merger: There are no significant differences between the product from different brands (petrol is pretty much the same, no matter who extracts it). The industry increasingly utilizes advanced technology in exploration, production, refining, and in the logistics of its operations (it is evident the cost reduction since all the companies require the same expenditures) According to the market conditions related to the oil industry mentioned before, the BP-Amoco merger was convenient and almost needed to push the barriers surrounding the industry as the fall in crude prices and the high costs regarding exploration and development that were required to further increase its production. Concerning to Daimler-Chrysler, many factors were not considered before the merger and limited the achievement of outcomes expected, mainly on issues of marketing, synergies in production and work culture. http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/STAGING/global_assets/downloads/A/ARCO_Key_facts_and_operating_statistics.pdf Mergers and Acquisitions ARCO. 2008 Berkovitch, Elazar and M. P. Narayanan, 1993, Motives for Takeovers: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Financial Quantitative Analysis, 28 (No. 3, September), 347-362. http://www.adb.online.anu.edu.au/biogs/A080230b.htm. Australian Dictionary of Biography. Retrieved 5 Jun. 2010 Copeland, Tom, Tim Koller, and Jack Murrin, 2000, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Values of Companies, 3rd ed., New York, NY, John Wiley Sons. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP ANNEXES BP Recent financial data in millions of US$ Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sales 180,186 236,045 294,849 249,465 265,906 284,365 361,341 EBITDA 22,941 28,200 37,825 41,453 44,835 Net results 6,845 10,267 15,961 22,341 22,000 20,845 21,157 Net debt 20,273 20,193 21,607 16,202 16,202

Prelude to Foundation Chapter 1 Mathematician

CLEON I-†¦ The last Galactic Emperor of the Entun dynasty. He was born in the year 11,988 of the Galactic Era, the same year in which Hari Seldon was born. (It is thought that Seldon's birthdate, which some consider doubtful, may have been adjusted to match that of Cleon, whom Seldon, soon after his arrival on Trantor, is supposed to have encountered.) Having succeeded to the Imperial throne in 12,010 at the age of twenty-two, Cleon I's reign represented a curious interval of quiet in those troubled times. This is undoubtedly due to the skills of his Chief of Staff, Eto Demerzel, who so carefully obscured himself from public record that little is known about him. Cleon himself†¦ Encyclopedia Galactica [1] 1. Suppressing a small yawn, Cleon said, â€Å"Demerzel, have you by any chance ever heard of a man named Hari Seldon?† Cleon had been Emperor for just over ten years and there were times at state occasions when, dressed in the necessary robes and regalia, he could manage to look stately. He did so, for instance, in the holograph of himself that stood in the niche in the wall behind him. It was placed so that it clearly dominated the other niches holding the holographs of several of his ancestors. The holograph was not a totally honest one, for though Cleon's hair was light brown in hologram and reality alike, it was a bit thicker in the holograph. There was a certain asymmetry to his real face, for the left side of his upper lip raised itself a bit higher than the right side, and this was somehow not evident in the holograph. And if he had stood up and placed himself beside the holograph, he would have been seen to be 2 centimeters under the 1.83-meter height that the image portrayed-and perhaps a bit stouter. Of course, the holograph was the official coronation portrait and he had been younger then. He still looked young and rather handsome, too, and when he was not in the pitiless grip of official ceremony, there was a kind of vague good nature about his face. Demerzel said, with the tone of respect that he carefully cultivated, â€Å"Hari Seldon? It is an unfamiliar name to me, Sire. Ought I to know of him?† â€Å"The Minister of Science mentioned him to me last night. I thought you might.† Demerzel frowned slightly, but only very slightly, for one does not frown in the Imperial presence. â€Å"The Minister of Science, Sire, should have spoken of this man to me as Chief of Staff. If you are to be bombarded from every side-â€Å" Cleon raised his hand and Demerzel stopped at once. â€Å"Please, Demerzel, one can't stand on formality at all times. When I passed the Minister at last night's reception and exchanged a few words with him, he bubbled over. I could not refuse to listen and I was glad I had, for it was interesting.† â€Å"In what way interesting, Sire?† â€Å"Well, these are not the old days when science and mathematics were all the rage. That sort of thing seems to have died down somehow, perhaps because all the discoveries have been made, don't you think? Apparently, however, interesting things can still happen. At least I was told it was interesting.† â€Å"By the Minister of Science, Sire?† â€Å"Yes. He said that this Hari Seldon had attended a convention of mathematicians held here in Trantor-they do this every ten years, for some reason-and he said that he had proved that one could foretell the future mathematically.† Demerzel permitted himself a small smile. â€Å"Either the Minister of Science, a man of little acumen, is mistaken or the mathematician is. Surely, the matter of foretelling the future is a children's dream of magic.† â€Å"Is it, Demerzel? People believe in such things.† â€Å"People believe in many things, Sire.† â€Å"But they believe in such things. Therefore, it doesn't matter whether the forecast of the future is true or not. If a mathematician should predict a long and happy reign for me, a time of peace and prosperity for the Empire-Eh, would that not be well?† â€Å"It would be pleasant to hear, certainly, but what would it accomplish, Sire?† â€Å"But surely if people believe this, they would act on that belief. Many a prophecy, by the mere force of its being believed, is transmuted to fact. These are ‘self-fulfilling prophecies.' Indeed, now that I think of it, it was you who once explained this to me.† Demerzel said, â€Å"I believe I did, Sire.† His eyes were watching the Emperor carefully, as though to see how far he might go on his own. â€Å"Still, if that be so, one could have any person make the prophecy.† â€Å"Not all persons would be equally believed, Demerzel. A mathematician, however, who could back his prophecy with mathematical formulas and terminology, might be understood by no one and yet believed by everyone.† Demerzel said, â€Å"As usual, Sire, you make good sense. We live in troubled times and it would be worthwhile to calm them in a way that would require neither money nor military effort-which, in recent history, have done little good and much harm.† â€Å"Exactly, Demerzel,† said the Emperor with excitement. â€Å"Reel in this Hari Seldon. You tell me you have your strings stretching to every part of this turbulent world, even where my forces dare not go. Pull on one of those strings, then, and bring in this mathematician. Let me see him.† â€Å"I will do so, Sire,† said Demerzel, who had already located Seldon and who made a mental note to commend the Minister of Science for a job well done. 2. Hari Seldon did not make an impressive appearance at this time. Like the Emperor Cleon I, he was thirty-two years old, but he was only 1.73 meters tall. His face was smooth and cheerful, his hair dark brown, almost black, and his clothing had the unmistakable touch of provinciality about it. To anyone in later times who knew of Hari Seldon only as a legendary demigod, it would seem almost sacrilegious for him not to have white hair, not to have an old lined face, a quiet smile radiating wisdom, not to be seated in a wheelchair. Even then, in advanced old age, his eyes had been cheerful, however. There was that. And his eyes were particularly cheerful now, for his paper had been given at the Decennial Convention. It had even aroused some interest in a distant sort of way and old Osterfith had nodded his head at him and had said, â€Å"Ingenious, young man. Most ingenious.† Which, coming from Osterfith, was satisfactory. Most satisfactory. But now there was a new-and quite unexpected-development and Seldon wasn't sure whether it should increase his cheer and intensify his satisfaction or not. He stared at the tall young man in uniform-the Spaceship-and-Sun neatly placed on the left side of his tunic. â€Å"Lieutenant Alban Wellis,† said the officer of the Emperor's Guard before putting away his identification. â€Å"Will you come with me now, sir?† Wellis was armed, of course. There were two other Guardsmen waiting outside his door. Seldon knew he had no choice, for all the other's careful politeness, but there was no reason he could not seek information. He said, â€Å"To see the Emperor?† â€Å"To be brought to the Palace, sir. That's the extent of my instructions.† â€Å"But why?† â€Å"I was not told why, sir. And I have my strict instructions that you must come with me-one way or another.† â€Å"But this seems as though I am being arrested. I have done nothing to warrant that.† â€Å"Say, rather, that it seems you are being given an escort of honor-if you delay me no further.† Seldon delayed no further. He pressed his lips together, as though to block of further questions, nodded his head, and stepped forward. Even if he was going to meet the Emperor and to receive Imperial commendation, he found no joy in it. He was for the Empire-that is, for the worlds of humanity in peace and union but he was not for the Emperor. The lieutenant walked ahead, the other two behind. Seldon smiled at those he passed and managed to look unconcerned. Outside the hotel they climbed into an official ground-car. (Seldon ran his hand over the upholstery; he had never been in anything so ornate.) They were in one of the wealthiest sections of Trantor. The dome was high enough here to give a sensation of being in the open and one could swear-even one such as Hari Seldon, who had been born and brought up on an open world-that they were in sunlight. You could see no sun and no shadows, but the air was light and fragrant. And then it passed and the dome curved down and the walls narrowed in and soon they were moving along an enclosed tunnel, marked periodically with the Spaceship-and-Sun and so clearly reserved (Seldon thought) for official vehicles. A door opened and the ground-car sped through. When the door closed behind them, they were in the open-the true, the real open. There were 250 square kilometers of the only stretch of open land on Trantor and on it stood the Imperial Palace. Seldon would have liked a chance to wander through that open land-not because of the Palace, but because it also contained the Galactic University and, most intriguing of all, the Galactic Library. And yet, in passing from the enclosed world of Trantor into the open patch of wood and parkland, he had passed into a world in which clouds dimmed the sky and a chill wind rued his shirt. He pressed the contact that closed the ground-car's window. It was a dismal day outside. 3. Seldon was not at all sure he would meet the Emperor. At best, he would meet some official in the fourth or fifth echelon who would claim to speak for the Emperor. How many people ever did see the Emperor? In person, rather than on holovision? How many people saw the real, tangible Emperor, an Emperor who never left the Imperial grounds that he, Seldon, was now rolling over. The number was vanishingly small. Twenty-five million inhabited worlds, each with its cargo of a billion human beings or more-and among all those quadrillions of human beings, how many had, or would ever, lay eyes on the living Emperor. A thousand? And did anyone care? The Emperor was no more than a symbol of Empire, like the Spaceship-and-Sun but far less pervasive, far less real. It was his soldiers and his officials, crawling everywhere, that now represented an Empire that had become a dead weight upon its people-not the Emperor. So it was that when Seldon was ushered into a moderately sized, lavishly furnished room and found a young-looking man sitting on the edge of a table in a windowed alcove, one foot on the ground and one swinging over the edge, he found himself wondering that any official should be looking at him in so blandly good-natured a way. He had already experienced the fact, over and over, that government officials-and particularly those in the Imperial service-looked grave at all times, as though bearing the weight of the entire Galaxy on their shoulders. And it seemed the lower in importance they were, the graver and more threatening their expression. This, then, might be an official so high in the scale, with the sun of power so bright upon him, that he felt no need of countering it with clouds of frowning. Seldon wasn't sure how impressed he ought to be, but he felt that it would be best to remain silent and let the other speak first. The official said, â€Å"You are Hari Seldon, I believe. The mathematician.† Seldon responded with a minimal â€Å"Yes, sir,† and waited again. The young man waved an arm. â€Å"It should be ‘Sire,' but I hate ceremony. It's all I get and I weary of it. We are alone, so I will pamper myself and eschew ceremony. Sit down, professor.† Halfway through the speech, Seldon realized that he was speaking to the Emperor Cleon, First of that Name, and he felt the wind go out of him. There was a faint resemblance (now that he looked) to the official holograph that appeared constantly in the news, but in that holograph, Cleon was always dressed imposingly, seemed taller, nobler, frozen-faced. And here he was, the original of the holograph, and somehow he appeared to be quite ordinary. Seldon did not budge. The Emperor frowned slightly and, with the habit of command present even in the attempt to abolish it, at least temporarily, said peremptorily, â€Å"I said, ‘Sit down,' man. That chair. Quickly.† Seldon sat down, quite speechless. He could not even bring himself to say, â€Å"Yes, Sire.† Cleon smiled. â€Å"That's better. Now we can talk like two fellow human beings, which, after all, is what we are once ceremony is removed. Eh, my man?† Seldon said cautiously, â€Å"If Your Imperial Majesty is content to say so, then it is so.† â€Å"Oh, come, why are you so cautious? I want to talk to you on equal terms. It is my pleasure to do so. Humor me.† â€Å"Yes, Sire.† â€Å"A simple ‘Yes,' man. Is there no way I can reach you?† Cleon stared at Seldon and Seldon thought it was a lively and interested stare. Finally the Emperor said, â€Å"You don't look like a mathematician.† At last, Seldon found himself able to smile. â€Å"I don't know what a mathematician is suppose to look like, Your Imp-â€Å" Cleon raised a cautioning hand and Seldon choked off the honorific. Cleon said, â€Å"White-haired, I suppose. Bearded, perhaps. Old, certainly.† â€Å"Yet even mathematicians must be young to begin with.† â€Å"But they are then without reputation. By the time they obtrude themselves on the notice of the Galaxy, they are as I have described.† â€Å"I am without reputation, I'm afraid.† â€Å"Yet you spoke at this convention they held here.† â€Å"A great many of us did. Some were younger than myself. Few of us were granted any attention whatever.† â€Å"Your talk apparently attracted the attention of some of my officials. I am given to understand that you believe it possible to predict the future.† Seldon suddenly felt weary. It seemed as though this misinterpretation of his theory was constantly going to occur. Perhaps he should not have presented his paper. He said, â€Å"Not quite, actually. What I have done is much more limited than that. In many systems, the situation is such that under some conditions chaotic events take place. That means that, given a particular starting point, it is impossible to predict outcomes. This is true even in some quite simple systems, but the more complex a system, the more likely it is to become chaotic. It has always been assumed that anything as complicated as human society would quickly become chaotic and, therefore, unpredictable. What I have done, however, is to show that, in studying human society, it is possible to choose a starting point and to make appropriate assumptions that will suppress the chaos. That will make it possible to predict the future, not in full detail, of course, but in broad sweeps; not with certainty, but with calculable probabilities.† The Emperor, who had listened carefully, said, â€Å"But doesn't that mean that you have shown how to predict the future?† â€Å"Again, not quite. I have showed that it is theoretically possible, but no more. To do more, we would actually have to choose a correct starting point, make correct assumptions, and then find ways of carrying through calculations in a finite time. Nothing in my mathematical argument tells us how to do any of this. And even if we could do it all, we would, at best, only assess probabilities. That is not the same as predicting the future; it is merely a guess at what is likely to happen. Every successful politician, businessman, or human being of any calling must make these estimates of the future and do it fairly well or he or she would not be successful.† â€Å"They do it without mathematics.† â€Å"True. They do it by intuition.† â€Å"With the proper mathematics, anyone would be able to assess the probabilities. It wouldn't take the rare human being who is successful because of a remarkable intuitive sense.† â€Å"True again, but I have merely shown that mathematical analysis is possible; I have not shown it to be practical.† â€Å"How can something be possible, yet not practical?† â€Å"It is theoretically possible for me to visit each world of the Galaxy and greet each person on each world. However, it would take far longer to do this than I have years to live and, even if I was immortal, the rate at which new human beings are being born is greater than the rate at which I could interview the old and, even more to the point, old human beings would die in great numbers before I could ever get to them.† â€Å"And is this sort of thing true of your mathematics of the future?† Seldon hesitated, then went on. â€Å"It might be that the mathematics would take too long to work out, even if one had a computer the size of the Universe working at hyperspatial velocities. By the time any answer had been received, enough years would have elapsed to alter the situation so grossly as to make the answer meaningless.† â€Å"Why cannot the process be simplified?† Cleon asked sharply. â€Å"Your Imperial Majesty,†-Seldon felt the Emperor growing more formal as the answers grew less to his liking and responded with greater formality of his own, â€Å"consider the manner in which scientists have dealt with subatomic particles. There are enormous numbers of these, each moving or vibrating in random and unpredictable manner, but this chaos turns out to have an underlying order, so that we can work out a quantum mechanics that answers all the questions we know how to ask. In studying society, we place human beings in the place of subatomic particles, but now there is the added factor of the human mind. Particles move mindlessly; human beings do not. To take into account the various attitudes and impulses of mind adds so much complexity that there lacks time to take care of all of it.† â€Å"Could not mind, as well as mindless motion, have an underlying order?† â€Å"Perhaps. My mathematical analysis implies that order must underlie everything, however disorderly it may appear to be, but it does not give any hint as to how this underlying order may be found. Consider-Twenty-five million worlds, each with its overall characteristics and culture, each being significantly different from all the rest, each containing a billion or more human beings who each have an individual mind, and all the worlds interacting in innumerable ways and combinations! However theoretically possible a psychohistorical analysis may be, it is not likely that it can be done in any practical sense.† â€Å"What do you mean ‘psychohistorical'?† â€Å"I refer to the theoretical assessment of probabilities concerning the future as ‘psychohistory.' â€Å" The Emperor rose to his feet suddenly, strode to the other end of the room, turned, strode back, and stopped before the still-sitting Seldon. â€Å"Stand up!† he commanded. Seldon rose and looked up at the somewhat taller Emperor. He strove to keep his gaze steady. Cleon finally said, â€Å"This psychohistory of yours†¦ if it could be made practical, it would be of great use, would it not?† â€Å"Of enormous use, obviously. To know what the future holds, in even the most general and probabilistic way, would serve as a new and marvelous guide for our actions, one that humanity has never before had. But, of course-† He paused. â€Å"Well?† said Cleon impatiently. â€Å"Well, it would seem that, except for a few decision-makers, the results of psychohistorical analysis would have to remain unknown to the public.† â€Å"Unknown!† exclaimed Cleon with surprise. â€Å"It's clear. Let me try to explain. If a psychohistorical analysis is made and the results are then given to the public, the various emotions and reactions of humanity would at once be distorted. The psychohistorical analysis, based on emotions and reactions that take place without knowledge of the future, become meaningless. Do you understand?† The Emperor's eyes brightened and he laughed aloud. â€Å"Wonderful!† He clapped his hand on Seldon's shoulder and Seldon staggered slightly under the blow. â€Å"Don't you see, man?† said Cleon. â€Å"Don't you see? There's your use. You don't need to predict the future. Just choose a future-a good future, a useful future-and make the kind of prediction that will alter human emotions and reactions in such a way that the future you predicted will be brought about. Better to make a good future than predict a bad one.† Seldon frowned. â€Å"I see what you mean, Sire, but that is equally impossible.† â€Å"Impossible?† â€Å"Well, at any rate, impractical. Don't you see? If you can't start with human emotions and reactions and predict the future they will bring about, you can't do the reverse either. You can't start with a future and predict the human emotions and reactions that will bring it about.† Cleon looked frustrated. His lips tightened. â€Å"And your paper, then?†¦ Is that what you call it, a paper?†¦ Of what use is it?† â€Å"It was merely a mathematical demonstration. It made a point of interest to mathematicians, but there was no thought in my mind of its being useful in any way.† â€Å"I find that disgusting,† said Cleon angrily. Seldon shrugged slightly. More than ever, he knew he should never have given the paper. What would become of him if the Emperor took it into his head that he had been made to play the fool? And indeed, Cleon did not look as though he was very far from believing that. â€Å"Nevertheless,† he said, â€Å"what if you were to make predictions of the future, mathematically justified or not; predictions that government officials, human beings whose expertise it is to know what the public is likely to do, will judge to be the kind that will bring about useful reactions?† â€Å"Why would you need me to do that? The government officials could make those predictions themselves and spare the middleman.† â€Å"The government officials could not do so as effectively. Government officials do make statements of the sort now and then. They are not necessarily believed.† â€Å"Why would I be?† â€Å"You are a mathematician. You would have calculated the future, not†¦ not intuited it-if that is a word.† â€Å"But I would not have done so.† â€Å"Who would know that?† Cleon watched him out of narrowed eyes. There was a pause. Seldon felt trapped. If given a direct order by the Emperor, would it be safe to refuse? If he refused, he might be imprisoned or executed. Not without trial, of course, but it is only with great difficulty that a trial can be made to go against the wishes of a heavy-handed officialdom, particularly one under the command of the Emperor of the vast Galactic Empire. He said finally, â€Å"It wouldn't work.† â€Å"Why not?† â€Å"If I were asked to predict vague generalities that could not possibly come to pass until long after this generation and, perhaps, the next were dead, we might get away with it, but, on the other hand, the public would pay little attention. They would not care about a glowing eventuality a century or two in the future. â€Å"To attain results,† Seldon went on, â€Å"I would have to predict matters of sharper consequence, more immediate eventualities. Only to these would the public respond. Sooner or later, though-and probably sooner-one of the eventualities would not come to pass and my usefulness would be ended at once. With that, your popularity might be gone, too, and, worst of all, there would be no further support for the development of psychohistory so that there would be no chance for any good to come of it if future improvements in mathematical insights help to make it move closer to the realm of practicality.† Cleon threw himself into a chair and frowned at Seldon. â€Å"Is that all you mathematicians can do? Insist on impossibilities?† Seldon said with desperate softness, â€Å"It is you, Sire, who insist on impossibilities.† â€Å"Let me test you, man. Suppose I asked you to use your mathematics to tell me whether I would some day be assassinated? What would you say?† â€Å"My mathematical system would not give an answer to so specific a question, even if psychohistory worked at its best. All the quantum mechanics in the world cannot make it possible to predict the behavior of one lone electron, only the average behavior of many.† â€Å"You know your mathematics better than I do. Make an educated guess based on it. Will I someday be assassinated?† Seldon said softly, â€Å"You lay a trap for me, Sire. Either tell me what answer you wish and I will give it to you or else give me free right to make what answer I wish without punishment.† â€Å"Speak as you will.† â€Å"Your word of honor?† â€Å"Do you want it an writing?† Cleon was sarcastic. â€Å"Your spoken word of honor will be sufficient,† said Seldon, his heart sinking, for he was not certain it would be. â€Å"You have my word of honor.† â€Å"Then I can tell you that in the past four centuries nearly half the Emperors have been assassinated, from which I conclude that the chances of your assassination are roughly one in two.† â€Å"Any fool can give that answer,† said Cleon with contempt. â€Å"It takes no mathematician.† â€Å"Yet I have told you several times that my mathematics is useless for practical problems.† â€Å"Can't you even suppose that I learn the lessons that have been given me by my unfortunate predecessors?† Seldon took a deep breath and plunged in. â€Å"No, Sire. All history shows that we do not learn from the lessons of the past. For instance, you have allowed me here in a private audience. What if it were in my mind to assassinate you? Which it isn't, Sire,† he added hastily. Cleon smiled without humor. â€Å"My man, you don't take into account our thoroughness-or advances in technology. We have studied your history, your complete record. When you arrived, you were scanned. Your expression and voiceprints were analyzed. We knew your emotional state in detail; we practically knew your thoughts. Had there been the slightest doubt of your harmlessness, you would not have been allowed near me. In fact, you would not now be alive.† A wave of nausea swept through Seldon, but he continued. â€Å"Outsiders have always found it difficult to get at Emperors, even with technology less advanced. However, almost every assassination has been a palace coup. It is those nearest the Emperor who are the greatest danger to him. Against that danger, the careful screening of outsiders is irrelevant. And as for your own officials, your own Guardsmen, your own intimates, you cannot treat them as you treat me.† Cleon said, â€Å"I know that, too, and at least as well as you do. The answer is that I treat those about me fairly and I give them no cause for resentment.† â€Å"A foolish-† began Seldon, who then stopped in confusion. â€Å"Go on,† said Cleon angrily. â€Å"I have given you permission to speak freely. How am I foolish?† â€Å"The word slipped out, Sire. I meant ‘irrelevant.' Your treatment of your intimates is irrelevant. You must be suspicious; it would be inhuman not to be. A careless word, such as the one I used, a careless gesture, a doubtful expression and you must withdraw a bit with narrowed eyes. And any touch of suspicion sets in motion a vicious cycle. The intimate will sense and resent the suspicion and will develop a changed behavior, try as he might to avoid it. You sense that and grow more suspicious and, in the end, either he is executed or you are assassinated. It is a process that has proved unavoidable for the Emperors of the past four centuries and it is but one sign of the increasing difficulty of conducting the affairs of the Empire.† â€Å"Then nothing I can do will avoid assassination.† â€Å"No, Sire,† said Seldon, â€Å"but, on the other hand, you may prove fortunate.† Cleon's fingers were drumming on the arm of his chair. He said harshly, â€Å"You are useless, man, and so is your psychohistory. Leave me.† And with those words, the Emperor looked away, suddenly seeming much older than his thirty-two years. â€Å"I have said my mathematics would be useless to you, Sire. My profound apologies.† Seldon tried to bow but at some signal he did not see, two guards entered and took him away. Cleon's voice came after him from the royal chamber. â€Å"Return that man to the place from which he was brought earlier.† 4. Eto Demerzel emerged and glanced at the Emperor with a hint of proper deference. He said, â€Å"Sire, you have almost lost your temper.† Cleon looked up and, with an obvious effort, managed to smile. â€Å"Well, so I did. The man was very disappointing.† â€Å"And yet he promised no more than he offered.† â€Å"He offered nothing.† â€Å"And promised nothing, Sire.† â€Å"It was disappointing.† Demerzel said, â€Å"More than disappointing, perhaps. The man is a loose cannon, Sire.† â€Å"A loose what, Demerzel? You are always so full of strange expressions. What is a cannon?† Demerzel said gravely, â€Å"It is simply an expression I heard in my youth, Sire. The Empire is full of strange expressions and some are unknown on Trantor, as those of Trantor are sometimes unknown elsewhere.† â€Å"Do you come to teach me the Empire is large? What do you mean by saying that the man is a loose cannon?† â€Å"Only that he can do much harm without necessarily intending it. He does not know his own strength. Or importance.† â€Å"You deduce that, do you, Demerzel?† â€Å"Yes, Sire. He is a provincial. He does not know Trantor or its ways. He has never been on our planet before and he cannot behave like a man of breeding, like a courtier. Yet he stood up to-â€Å" â€Å"And why not? I gave him permission to speak. I left off ceremony. I treated him as an equal.† â€Å"Not entirely, Sire. You don't have it within you to treat others as equals. You have the habit of command. And even if you tried to put a person at his ease, there would be few who could manage it. Most would be speechless or, worse, subservient and sycophantic. This man stood up to you.† â€Å"Well, you may admire that, Demerzel, but I didn't like him.† Cleon looked thoughtfully discontented. â€Å"Did you notice that he made no effort to explain his mathematics to me? It was as though he knew I would not understand a word of it.† â€Å"Nor would you have, Sire. You are not a mathematician, nor a scientist of any kind, nor an artist. There are many fields of knowledge in which others know more than you. It is their task to use their knowledge to serve you. You are the Emperor, which is worth all their specializations put together.† â€Å"Is it? I would not mind being made to feel ignorant by an old man who had accumulated knowledge over many years. But this man, Seldon, is just my age. How does he know so much?† â€Å"He has not had to learn the habit of command, the art of reaching a decision that will affect the lives of others.† â€Å"Sometimes, Demerzel, I wonder if you are laughing at me.† â€Å"Sire?† said Demerzel reproachfully. â€Å"But never mind. Back to that loose cannon of yours. Why should you consider him dangerous? He seems a naive provincial to me.† â€Å"He is. But he has this mathematical development of his.† â€Å"He says it is useless.† â€Å"You thought it might be useful. I thought so, after you had explained it to me. Others might. The mathematician may come to think so himself, now that his mind has been focused on it. And who knows, he may yet work out some way of making use of it. If he does, then to foretell the future, however mistily, is to be in a position of great power. Even if he does not wish power for himself, a kind of self-denial that always seems to me to be unlikely, he might be used by others.† â€Å"I tried to use him. He would not.† â€Å"He had not given it thought. Perhaps now he will. And if he was not interested in being used by you, might he not be persuaded by-let us say-the Mayor of Wye?† â€Å"Why should he be willing to help Wye and not us?† â€Å"As he explained, it is hard to predict the emotions and behavior of individuals.† Cleon scowled and sat in thought. â€Å"Do you really think he might develop this psychohistory of his to the point where it is truly useful? He is so certain he cannot.† â€Å"He may, with time, decide he was wrong in denying the possibility.† Cleon said, â€Å"Then I suppose I ought to have kept him.† Demerzel said, â€Å"No, Sire. Your instinct was correct when you let him go. Imprisonment, however disguised, would cause resentment and despair, which would not help him either to develop his ideas further or make him eager to help us. Better to let him go as you have done, but to keep him forever on an invisible leash. In this way, we can see that he is not used by an enemy of yourself, Sire, and we can see that when the time comes and he has fully developed his science, we can pull on our leash and bring him in. Then we could be†¦ more persuasive.† â€Å"But what if he it picked up by an enemy of mine or, better, of the Empire, for I am the Empire after all, or if, of his own accord, he wishes to serve an enemy-I don't consider that out of the question, you see.† â€Å"Nor should you. I will see to it that this doesn't happen, but if, against all striving, it does happen, it would be better if no one has him than if the wrong person does.† Cleon looked uneasy. â€Å"I'll leave that all in your hands, Demerzel, but I hope we're not too hasty. He could be, after all, nothing but the purveyor of a theoretical science that does not and cannot work.† â€Å"Quite possibly, Sire, but it would be safer to assume the man is-or might be-important. We lose only a little time and nothing more if we find that we have concerned ourselves with a nonentity. We may lose a Galaxy if we find we have ignored someone of great importance.† â€Å"Very well, then,† said Cleon, â€Å"but I trust I won't have to know the details-if they prove unpleasant.† Demerzel said, â€Å"Let us hope that will not be the case.† 5. Seldon had had an evening, a night, and part of a morning to get over his meeting with the Emperor. At least, the changing quality of light within the walkways, moving corridors, squares, and parks of the Imperial Sector of Trantor made it seem that an evening, a night, and part of a morning had passed. He sat now in a small park on a small plastic seat that molded itself neatly to his body and he was comfortable. Judging from the light, it seemed to be midmorning and the air was just cool enough to seem fresh without possessing even the smallest bite. Was it like this all the time? He thought of the gray day outside when he went to see the Emperor. And he thought of all the gray days and cold days and hot days and rainy days and snowy days on Helicon, his home, and he wondered if one could miss them. Was it possible to sit in a park on Trantor, having ideal weather day after day, so that it felt as though you were surrounded by nothing at all-and coming to miss a howling wind or a biting cold or a breathless humidity? Perhaps. But not on the first day or the second or the seventh. He would have only this one day and he would leave tomorrow. He meant to enjoy it while he could. He might, after all, never return to Trantor. Still, he continued to feel uneasy at having spoken as independently as he had to a man who could, at will, order one's imprisonment or execution-or, at the very least, the economic and social death of loss of position and status. Before going to bed, Seldon had looked up Cleon I in the encyclopedic portion of his hotel room computer. The Emperor had been highly praised as, no doubt, had all Emperors in their own lifetime, regardless of their deeds. Seldon had dismissed that, but he was interested in the fact that Cleon had been born in the Palace and had never left its grounds. He had never been in Trantor itself, in any part of the multi-domed world. It was a matter of security, perhaps, but what it meant was that the Emperor was in prison, whether he admitted the matter to him self or not. It might be the most luxurious prison in the Galaxy, but it was a prison just the same. And though the Emperor had seemed mild-mannered and had shown no sign of being a bloody-minded autocrat as so many of his predecessors had been, it was not good to have attracted his attention. Seldon welcomed the thought of leaving tomorrow for Helicon, even though it would be winter (and a rather nasty one, so far) back home. He looked up at the bright diffuse light. Although it could never rain in here, the atmosphere was far from dry. A fountain played not far from him; the plants were green and had probably never felt drought. Occasionally, the shrubbery rustled as though a small animal or two was hidden there. He heard the hum of bees. Really, though Trantor was spoken of throughout the Galaxy as an artificial world of metal and ceramic, in this small patch it felt positively rustic. There were a few other persons taking advantage of the park all wearing light hats, some quite small. There was one rather pretty young woman not far away, but she was bent over a viewer and he could not see her face clearly. A man walked past, looked at him briefly and incuriously, then sat down in a seat facing him and buried himself in a sheaf of teleprints, crossing one leg, in its tight pink trouser leg, over the other. There was a tendency to pastel shades among the men, oddly enough, while the women mostly wore white. Being a clean environment, it made sense to wear light colors. He looked down in amusement at his own Heliconian costume, which was predominantly dull brown. If he were to stay on Trantor as he was not he would need to purchase suitable clothing or he would become an object of curiosity or laughter or repulsion. The man with the teleprints had, for instance, looked up at him more curiously this time-no doubt intrigued by his Outworldish clothing. Seldon was relieved that he did not smile. He could be philosophical over being a figure of fun, but, surely, he could not be expected to enjoy it. Seldon watched the man rather unobtrusively, for he seemed to be engaged in some sort of internal debate. At the moment he looked as if he was about to speak, then seemed to think better of it, then seemed to wish to speak again. Seldon wondered what the outcome would be. He studied the man. He was tall, with broad shoulders and no sign of a paunch, darkish hair with a glint of blond, smooth-shaven, a grave expression, an air of strength though there were no bulging muscles, a face that was a touch rugged-pleasant, but with nothing â€Å"pretty† about it. By the time the man had lost the internal fight with himself (or won, perhaps) and leaned toward him, Seldon had decided he liked him. The man said, â€Å"Pardon me, weren't you at the Decennial Convention? Mathematics?† â€Å"Yes, I was,† said Seldon agreeably. â€Å"Ah, I thought I saw you there. It was-excuse me-that moment of recognition that led me to sit here. If I am intruding on your privacy-â€Å" â€Å"Not at all. I'm just enjoying an idle moment.† â€Å"Let's see how close I can get. You're Professor Seldon.† â€Å"Seldon. Hari Seldon. Quite close. And you?† â€Å"Chetter Hummin.† The man seemed slightly embarrassed. â€Å"Rather a homespun name, I'm afraid.† â€Å"I've never come across any Chetters before,† said Seldon. â€Å"Or Hummins. So that makes you somewhat unique, I should think. It might be viewed as being better than being mixed up with all the countless Haris there are. Or Seldons, for that matter.† Seldon moved his chair closer to Hummin, scraping it against the slightly elastic ceramoid tiles. â€Å"Talk about homespun,† he said, â€Å"What about this Outworldish clothing I'm wearing? It never occurred to me that I ought to get Trantorian garb.† â€Å"You could buy some,† said Hummin, eyeing Seldon with suppressed disapproval. â€Å"I'll be leaving tomorrow and, besides, I couldn't afford it. Mathematicians deal with large numbers sometimes, but never in their income.-I presume you're a mathematician, Hummin.† â€Å"No. Zero talent there.† â€Å"Oh.† Seldon was disappointed. â€Å"You said you saw me at the Decennial Convention.† â€Å"I was there as an onlooker. I'm a journalist.† He waved his teleprints, seemed suddenly aware that he was holding them and shoved them into his jacket pouch. â€Å"I supply the material for the news holocasts.† Then, thoughtfully, â€Å"Actually, I'm rather tired of it.† â€Å"The job?† Hummin nodded. â€Å"I'm sick of gathering together all the nonsense from every world. I hate the downward spiral.† He glanced speculatively at Seldon. â€Å"Sometimes something interesting turns up, though. I've heard you were seen in the company of an Imperial Guard and making for the Palace gate. You weren't by any chance seen by the Emperor, were you?† The smile vanished from Seldon's face. He said slowly, â€Å"If I was, it would scarcely be something I could talk about for publication.† â€Å"No, no, not for publication. If you don't know this, Seldon, let me be the first to tell you-The first rule of the news game is that nothing is ever said about the Emperor or his personal entourage except what is officially given out. It's a mistake, of course, because rumors fly that are much worse than the truth, but that's the way it is.† â€Å"But if you can't report it, friend, why do you ask?† â€Å"Private curiosity. Believe me, in my job I know a great deal more than ever gets on the air.-Let me guess. I didn't follow your paper, but I gathered that you were talking about the possibility of predicting the future.† Seldon shook his head and muttered, â€Å"It was a mistake.† â€Å"Pardon me?† â€Å"Nothing.† â€Å"Well, prediction-accurate prediction-would interest the Emperor, or any man in government, so I'm guessing that Cleon, First of that Name, asked you about it and wouldn't you please give him a few predictions.† Seldon said stiffly, â€Å"I don't intend to discuss the matter.† Hummin shrugged slightly. â€Å"Eto Demerzel was there, I suppose.† â€Å"Who?† â€Å"You've never heard of Eto Demerzel?† â€Å"Never.† â€Å"Cleon's alter ego-Cleon's brain-Cleon's evil spirit. He's been called all those things-if we confine ourselves to the nonvituperative. He must have been there.† Seldon looked confused and Hummin said, â€Å"Well, you may not have seen him, but he was there. And if he thinks you can predict the future-â€Å" â€Å"I can't predict the future,† said Seldon, shaking his head vigorously. â€Å"If you listened to my paper, you'll know that I only spoke of a theoretical possibility.† â€Å"Just the same, if he thinks you can predict the future, he will not let you go.† â€Å"He must have. Here I am.† â€Å"That means nothing. He knows where you are and he'll continue to know. And when he wants you, he'll get you, wherever you are. And if he decides you're useful, he'll squeeze the use out of you. And if he decides you're dangerous, he'll squeeze the life out of you.† Seldon stared. â€Å"What are you trying to do. Frighten me?† â€Å"I'm trying to warn you.† â€Å"I don't believe what you're saying.† â€Å"Don't you? A while ago you said something was a mistake. Were you thinking that presenting the paper was a mistake and that it was getting you into the kind of trouble you don't want to be in?† Seldon bit his lower lip uneasily. That was a guess that came entirely too close to the truth-and it was at this moment that Seldon felt the presence of intruders. They did not cast a shadow, for the light was too soft and widespread. It was simply a movement that caught the corner of his eye-and then it stopped.